Francine Update from Jay Grymes, State Climatologist:

Tuesday Afternoon

Max Sustained Winds: 65 mph

Central Min Pressure: 987 mb

Movement: NE at 10 mph

- tropical-storm winds likely to reach the south-central coast by mid-morning on Wednesday

- hurricane winds arriving ahead of a mid/late afternoon landfall

- another modest eastward shift to the cone this afternoon

- don't be surprised to see another minor eastward nudge with the 10 PM Advisory

- Francine expected to become Category 1 this evening or overnight

- Francine is expected to speed up tonight into Wednesday with a forward speed of roughly 15 mph by Wednesday's landfall

- at this stage, landfall expected along the St. Mary or Terrebonne coastlines with peak winds at landfall at ~90 mph (Category 1)

- hurricane-force winds could reach inland to the I-10/I-12 corridor

- tropical storm force winds expected to impact the remainder of the southeastern quarter of the state

- rainfall across south Louisiana is expected to run between 4" to 8" with locally-higher totals topping 10"

- most of that falls within a 24-hour window, producing river and flash flooding for the south-central and southeastern parishes

Francine Update from Jay Grymes, State Climatologist: Tuesday Morning

NHC as of 4 AM CDT:

- max winds at 65 mph

- min pressure at 992 mb

- moving NNW at 5 mph

- next Advisory (Intermediate) at 7 AM CDT

- while the larger mass of t-storm action is south of the LA coast, Francine's center remains to the SE of Brownsville

- forecast track models continue to show reasonably good agreement yielding medium/high confidence

- NHC landfall strength is on the high side of forecast intensity models

- expect a turn to the north and then NE over next 12-24 hours with an increase in forward speed to 15 mph

around landfall time

- most likely arrival of tropical storm force winds along coast: Wednesday morning after sunrise

- most likely arrival of hurricane winds along coast: Wednesday afternoon just prior to landfall

- landfall likely Wednesday afternoon/early evening at Category 2 (100 mph winds, ~970 mb) ... NHC landfall strength is on the high side of latest forecast intensity models ... models this season have trended on the low side of peak intensities ... planning for Category 2 landfall is the prudent approach

- hurricane force winds could extend inland to the I-10 corridor through south-central Louisiana with

tropical storm force winds extending into CENLA

- windspread rains of 4"-8" across South Louisiana with some 10"-12" pockets possible, most falling in 24-36 hours

- waiting on NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) to update South Louisiana river forecasts ... prepare for a number of rivers to go into flood with these rain numbers & intensities

- tornado threat through much of Wednesday, especially east of the storm track

- storm swells along the coast will begin arriving today ... surge threat of up to 8-10 ft for the coastal

stretch from Vermilion Bay to the Atchafalaya Bay