Agricultural Policy and Market Situation Newsletter (Vol. IV Issue 3) - October 2021

USDA's September 1st Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports bearishly revised 2020 soybean crop projections but included higher stock projections for both soybeans and corn. Wheat pro-duction and stocks were both construed as bullish. U.S. corn stocks came in at 1.236 billion bushels, somewhat higher than expected, ~69 million bushels higher than the average trade estimate of 1.167 billion bushels. However, September 2021 stocks have declined 36% as compared with September 2020 stock levels (1.919 billion bushels). While this estimate was certainly regarded as bearish, the 71million bushel downward revision in 2020 production was a positive input, as yield fell by 0.6 bushels per acre to 171.4 bushels per acre, and both planted and harvested acres were revised downward to 90.7 million acres and 82.3 million acres, respectively, with the latter figure coming in 200,000 acres below the last report. On-farm stocks were 395 million bushels, 47% down from last year, while off-farm stocks were down just 28% at 842 million bushels. The June through August indicated disappearance figured to be 2.87 billion bushels compared to 3.08 billion bushels a year ago.

10/4/2021 4:38:45 PM
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