This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook calls for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast down 215 million bushels at 14.507 billion bushels, with a reduction in yield to 175.8 bushels per acre. Corn exports are projected be near 2.650 billion bushels, 325 million bushels higher than previous estimates, and if these projections are realized this would amount to a record high. Projected feed and residual use have been lowered 75 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. With supply falling and use increasing, corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are down 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which, if projections hold, would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season average corn price is raised $0.40 to $4.00 per bushel.

The U.S. soybean outlook for 2020/21 is for lower production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98 million on lower yields. With reduced production, soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, down 100 million from last month. If realized, soybean ending stocks would be at the lowest level in the past seven years. Soybean and product prices for 2020/21 are all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $10.40 per bushel, up $0.60 cents.

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for decreased supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered as NASS decreased the all rice production forecast by 0.2 million cwt to 226.1 million, all on lower yields. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,560 pounds per acre, down slightly (seven pounds) from the previous forecast. Exports are reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 97.0 million on the mediocre sales and shipments in the early part of the marketing year with all the reduction for long-grain. Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.8 million cwt to 49.5 million, up 72% from last year. The season average farm price for long grain rice is forecasted at $11.70 per cwt, up $0.20 from last month. The southern medium grain rice price is also forecasted to increase $0.20 per cwt month-over-month to $11.80.

This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates remain virtually unchanged from October. U.S. production forecast is marginally higher, at 17.1 million bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks remain at 7.2 million bales and, at 42% of use, would be the highest stocks-to-use ratio since 2007/08. The marketing-year average price received by upland producers is forecast at 64.0 cents per pound, 5% (or 3 cents) above the October forecast, and 7% higher than 2019/20’s price of 59.6 cents.