Louisiana farmers will plant more acreage in rice, soybeans and cotton but less in corn, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture projection released last week.
Figures for the rice crops are in line with expectations, according to LSU AgCenter economist Kurt Guidry, but he said the USDA projections for corn, cotton and soybeans were surprising.
The projections are a snapshot, based on surveys taken in late February and early March, and Guidry said, "Intentions can change pretty drastically."
For example, the projection for corn at 79 million acres nationwide is far less than anticipated, Guidry said.
"I have a hard time seeing that," he said. "I’d say we’ll have as many corn acres as we did last year."
Most forecasters are expecting in excess of 80 million acres of corn, he said.
The USDA soybean projection of 75 million acres is about 500,000 acres more than others foresee, Guidry said. Soybeans stocks are expected to dwindle, he said, making an early harvest in August or September critical for farmers to get an extra $1 a bushel.
The USDA prediction for 14.4 million acres in cotton is considerably more than the industry expects, the LSU AgCenter economist said. Other projections are less than 14 million acres, he said.
"I think the general consensus is that cotton acreage will be either stable or down," Guidry said.
The futures market was affected by the report’s release, according to Guidry, who said it drove corn prices up by 10 cents a bushel and reduced soybeans by the same amount, while cotton fell by 4 cents.
But the weather could provide the last word on whether the projections are realistic, he said.
Sugarcane is not included in the projection, because it is not a crop that is planted annually, Guidry explained said.
The complete USDA report can be viewed at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/pcp-bbp/pspl0304.txt.
Here’s a summary of categories that apply to crops raised in Louisiana:
Rice – The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a sizeable acreage increase for rice planted nationwide, with the biggest percentage increase in Louisiana. The USDA released figures March 31 predicting the 2004 Louisiana acreage at 530,000, compared to 455,000 acres last year, for a 16 percent increase. Nationwide, the department forecasts 3.26 million acres will be planted, compared to 3.02 million acres last year – a 7 percent increase.
Soybeans – Nationwide, the soybean acreage total is estimated at 75.4 million, a 3 percent increase from 2003. "If realized, this will be the largest planted area on record and a rebound from the three-year decline in acreage," the USDA report says. Louisiana farmers are expected to plant 980,000 acres of soybeans, compared to 760,000 acres last year, for an increase of 29 percent. It is the second largest increase, according to the USDA, surpassed nationwide only by Texas’ 35 percent increase with 270,000 acres.
Cotton – Total U.S. acreage is estimated at 14.4 million, a 7 percent increase. In Louisiana, cotton acreage is projected at 600,000 acres, a 14 percent increase from the 525,000 acreage last year.
Corn – Growers will plant 79 million acres nationwide, a fractional increase from 2003. Farmers in the Southeast, including Louisiana, will reduce corn acreage to take advantage of more favorable prices for cotton and soybeans, the USDA says. Louisiana corn acreage is estimated at 450,000 acres, a 13 percent decline.
Sweet potatoes – Louisiana is expected to increase its acreage by 5 percent to 20,000 acres. Nationwide, 98,300 acres are projected for sweet potatoes, a 3 percent increase. A shortage of irrigation water has forced many farmers to decrease their acreage across the United States.
Sorghum – Louisiana farmers will plant only 100,000 acres, compared to 170,000 acres in 2003, a 41 percent decline. The nationwide projection is for 8.6 million acres, a 9 percent drop.
Wheat - Louisiana farmers are expected to plant 150,000 acres this year, a 3 percent decline from last year. The nationwide total of 59.4 million acres is a 4 percent decline.